A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
